The world is set to exceed its key climate goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next decade, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned.
In its latest Emissions Gap Report released on Tuesday, UNEP said slow global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions makes it “clear that the world will exceed the core target of the 2015 Paris Agreement — at least temporarily.”
“This will be difficult to reverse – requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize overshoot,” the agency stated.
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Lead author Anne Olhoff said deep emissions cuts could delay the breach, “but we can no longer totally avoid it.”
Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C and to aim for 1.5°C. But UNEP now projects that even if all current pledges are met, global temperatures will climb between 2.3°C and 2.5°C.
The report also noted that new plans, including China’s pledge to cut emissions by up to 10% from their peak by 2035, have not substantially narrowed the gap.
UNEP warned that the overshoot would intensify extreme weather and threaten ecosystems, with coral reefs among the most vulnerable. Current policies could push global temperatures as high as 2.8°C.
Although global warming projections have improved since the Paris Agreement, when the world was heading toward 4°C of heating, emissions continue to rise. Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.3% in 2024, UNEP said.